As politicians often disregard opinion polls as unreliable, the upcoming local elections in England serve as a significant test of public opinion, given the millions of real votes being cast. These elections are especially significant as they are the first since Rishi Sunak became prime minister and the onset of the cost of living crisis, and also the first since Labour gained a considerable lead in opinion polls. However, some caution is necessary in interpreting the election results, as around a quarter of the votes are going to independent candidates, which is not typical in general elections. It is worth noting that the rise in independent political activity is partly due to the post-Brexit realignment. These independents may revert to the Conservatives in future general elections, cast a protest vote for other parties such as Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, or the Greens, or choose not to vote at all.
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