UFC 316 Best Bets: O’Malley’s Revenge, Harrison’s Statement, and Spivac’s Edge | Deadspin.com

The expected UFC 316 card — anchored by way of Merab Dvalishvili going for a 2d win over Sean O’Malley — is heavy on drama and underdogs.

Let’s get proper to swinging with a have a look at the most productive bets for this struggle card:

Serghei Spivac (-140) to overcome Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Spivac is a a lot better wrestler than Cortes-Acosta, and whilst Spivac’s stand-up recreation is missing, his 8-inch achieve benefit on this struggle will have to lend a hand him reduce probably the most hole in that space.

Four of Spivac’s 5 losses within the UFC have come by way of knockout, and Cortes-Acosta’s energy isn’t all that daunting in spite of his benefit within the stand-up recreation — he has only a 46.2% knockout price in his 13 bouts.

I be expecting Spivac to climate the hurricane early prior to making the most of a tiring Cortes-Acosta at the flooring in the second one part of the struggle en course to a victory by way of resolution or a past due submission. 

Sean O’Malley (+220) to overcome Merab Dvalishvili

As any individual who effectively guess on Dvalishvili within the first bout towards O’Malley on the Sphere this previous September, one thing feels other about this struggle.

O’Malley turns out infinitely extra targeted within the lead-up, having minimized his distractions and antics out of doors of the octagon. He if truth be told saved that first struggle nearer than maximum take into account, in spite of Dvalishvili’s function victory — and he even had Dvalishvili at the ropes a bit of bit within the 5th and ultimate around.

O’Malley’s instructor has mentioned in fresh interviews that he believed the Sphere’s lights and environment contributed to O’Malley’s loss, which isn’t that arduous to imagine in the event you’ve ever been inside of that factor.

On the opposite hand, we’ve nonetheless gotten the similar outdated, standard from Dvalishvili in his struggle camp. He’s nonetheless posting his accidents on his Instagram Story — a lot to Dana White’s dismay — which tells me he may not be taking O’Malley that severely.

In phrases of mentality, it feels just like the playing cards have flipped from the primary struggle, and that’s why I think relaxed rolling with O’Malley’s price right here.

Kayla Harrison vs. Julianna Peña underneath 3.5 rounds (-140)

Kayla Harrison is out to turn out she’s the UFC’s largest big name within the girls’s department this Saturday, and he or she enters as an enormous -800 favourite to win the belt — in spite of coming into because the challenger — towards scrappy Julianna Peña.

Despite this, Harrison’s odds to win the struggle by way of resolution are simply +235. That way Vegas is with a bit of luck predicting a stoppage.

Considering Peña is a extra skilled fighter who possesses knockout energy in her personal proper, I be expecting her to move attempting to find the kill early — realizing she has a diminishing likelihood with every 2d Harrison stays mindful.

Peña isn’t a scrub both, as she carries two wins over former champion Amanda Nunes. Someone is getting stopped on this one — and it is going to be prior to the fourth-round bell. Likely Peña.