Sweden is feeling the warmth from Trump price lists — and there is extra to come back

Sweden’s financial system and families are feeling the warmth from U.S. business price lists, the Scandinavian nation’s finance minister informed CNBC — ahead of the whole pressure of the levies has even come into play.

“Our economy and the public finance are very solid. We have a low debt and we can cope with quite a lot. But eight of 10 Swedes save or invest their money in funds, stock markets and so on. So when … the market has gone up and down, that has been costly for households,” Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson informed CNBC Tuesday.

“[U.S. President Donald] Trump is really playing a high stakes here, and it’s a game with no winners, really, and it’s costly for households, and that makes me sad,” she added.

Uncertainty across the U.S.’ business coverage has left its mark on Swedish and world monetary markets. Sweden’s central financial institution, the Riksbank, famous final week that the pointy shifts in U.S. business and safety coverage have been inflicting “substantial market movements during the spring and entail greater uncertainty than usual.”

Other indicators have emerged that the specter of price lists is affecting the broader Swedish financial system, with executive information launched final week appearing the financial system shrank 0.2% within the 3 months to March, on a quarterly foundation.

Sweden’s finance ministry revised its 2025 and 2026 expansion forecasts downwards final month, predicting a 1.8% growth this 12 months and 2.3% subsequent 12 months, announcing price lists and uncertainty are dampening the rustic’s expansion potentialities.

“We don’t know whether tariffs will end, but the uncertainty and the unpredictability — that hurts our economy,” Svantesson informed CNBC.

The country has actively inspired retail financial savings in capital markets for many years, enabling electorate to spend money on stocks and funding budget and making the follow way more not unusual than in different European nations, just like the U.Ok.

Assessing the distribution and demographics of savers in Sweden, monetary watchdog Finansinspektionen famous in March that savers on the more youthful and older ends of the spectrum generally tend to position their cash into financial savings accounts. A bigger portion of latest financial savings for middle-aged Swedes is in stocks and funding budget, starting from pension schemes and fixed-income to sustainable and technology-focused budget.

Swedish families held liquid monetary financial savings — property in financial institution accounts, budget, stocks or different financial savings that generate a money go back — totaling 268 billion Swedish kronor ($27.8 billion) in 2024, with 138 billion Swedish kronor ($14.3 billion) held in funding budget, Sweden’s statistics company stated in March, with the common Swede saving round 1,000 Swedish kronor each and every month in such budget final 12 months.

At the tip of the primary quarter of 2025, the overall fund property in Swedish funding budget amounted to 7.75 trillion Swedish kronor, in step with the most recent information from Sweden’s statistics frame.

“Eight out of every ten Swedes save in funds, and if mandatory premium pension savings are included, we are all fund savers,” the Swedish Investment Fund Association (Fondbolagens förening) — which targets to advertise and give protection to self assurance in budget as a financial savings structure — says on its web site, describing the rustic as a “world leader in fund saving.”

Trump’s announcement in April that he would impose import price lists on quite a lot of buying and selling companions, good friend and foe alike, has confirmed a big supply of marketplace and financial uncertainty, and it is making some Swedish fund savers frightened, the affiliation informed CNBC.

“Swedish fund savers are used to equity investments going up and down in the short run and have a long investment horizon,” Fredrik Pettersson, leader analyst at Fondbolagens förening, informed CNBC Wednesday.

“Having said that, in our statistics we can see that in the beginning of this year, until now, active fund savers have sold U.S. funds, and bought European and Swedish funds,” he famous.

Morten Lund, Scandinavia leader economist at JPMorgan, informed CNBC on Wednesday that Trump price lists are ” having a pretty clear impact on household sentiment” and that this would feed into the broader financial system.

“So what we can see is that household confidence has moved around the U.S. election, from being the highest across the developed markets to now it’s actually plummeted to being the lowest. So it’s been a pretty significant shock, and I think it’s fair to say that this is very much related to tariffs uncertainty,” he stated.

Low family self assurance may just clear out via to intake, Lund stated, judging from the most recent expansion information.

“We do think that there will be a hit. We did get the first GDP numbers from the first quarter, they declined, and that was a clear disappointment, and based on where the confidence numbers are now, we should also see a pretty weak number here in the current quarter,” Lund famous.

Sweden is an export-dependent nation: exports amounted to round 55% of the nationwide gross home product (GDP) in 2024, in step with the rustic’s central financial institution, making its wider financial system prone to price lists imposed at the EU via President Trump.

The transfer — and price lists on different buying and selling companions — used to be predicated on what Trump sees as unfair buying and selling practices via the bloc, which it denies, and protracted business deficits that the U.S. runs with the EU.

Trump first of all imposed 20% tasks at the EU as a part of his sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” introduced in early April, ahead of slashing the speed to 10% for 90 days on April 9 to present time for each side to barter new buying and selling phrases.

The EU and U.S. had been locked in talks to check out to succeed in a business deal, however Trump stated in past due May that he used to be recommending a immediately 50% responsibility on items coming from the bloc amid stalling negotiations.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen controlled to influence the president to present talks extra time however, as issues stand, the EU has till July 9 to succeed in a take care of Washington.

Sweden’s biggest exports to the U.S. are automobiles, equipment, prescribed drugs, paper merchandise and iron, metal — which is now topic to a 50% U.S. import tariff — and iron ore. Most Swedish exports pass to different Nordic or European nations, however the U.S. is the 3rd biggest unmarried exporting nation, the Riksbank notes.

“Of course, we are very dependent on exports,” Sweden’s finance minister informed CNBC’s “Europe early Edition.”

“With this uncertainty, companies are holding back, waiting for investments, because they don’t know what will happen. Will the tariff be 10 or 20%, or something else?” she requested.