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An hastily aggressive, however expectedly entertaining, NBA Finals have reworked from a best-of-seven to a best-of-three, because the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder alternated wins within the first 4 video games.
Recently, they have got even alternated profitable types, too. The Thunder led maximum of Game 3, however the Pacers surged forward with a large fourth quarter, and Oklahoma City pulled the similar comeback trick in Game 4.
Through 4 video games, the 2 groups are separated via simply six features, and so they might be headed for the primary Finals Game 7 for the reason that conflict between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors in 2016. In advance of a pivotal Game 5 (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), listed below are seven performs that experience outlined the ways and narratives of the 2025 Finals, explaining how the collection reached 2-2 and the place it may well be headed.
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Let’s get started in Game 3, when the Pacers took considered one of their favourite ways to the intense. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s pick-and-rolls have set the level for a pleasing game-within-a-game within the Finals. The Pacers harried him in Game 1, so Oklahoma City tweaked its screening ways in Game 2, environment extra alternatives excessive up the courtroom to open house for the league MVP.
Then, Indiana replied, denying Gilgeous-Alexander the ball. If he does not have ownership, it isn’t important the place the Thunder would like to display screen for him. Through Game 2 of the Finals, Gilgeous-Alexander had introduced up the ball on 61% of the Thunder’s possessions when he was once at the courtroom, in line with an research of GeniusIQ monitoring information.
But in opposition to Indiana’s intense full-court power in Games 3 and 4, that share dropped via 1/2, as SGA introduced up the ball on simply 30% of the Thunder’s possessions in every recreation. That’s a significant trade of tempo for Oklahoma City’s offense: Out of 342 video games that Gilgeous-Alexander has performed during the last 5 seasons, those have been his second- and third-lowest percentages.
After Indiana’s first made shot of Game 3, Andrew Nembhard denied Gilgeous-Alexander the inbounds cross, fighting him from beginning Oklahoma City’s offense. And although that first ownership nonetheless produced a bucket for Williams, SGA by no means touched the ball.
More regularly than now not, that setup is a win for Indiana — like in this ownership halfway throughout the first quarter of Game 3, when Oklahoma City’s maximum proficient offensive participant did not contact the ball and an out-of-control Williams dedicated a turnover.
Overall, the Thunder are averaging 122 features according to 100 half-court possessions within the Finals when Gilgeous-Alexander brings up the ball, as opposed to simply 107 when he is at the courtroom however does not deliver up the ball, according to GeniusIQ. That’s now not the entire tale.
Not mentioning the ball may just assist Gilgeous-Alexander keep away from early fatigue, environment him up for higher success in crunch time, as was once the case in Game 4. But it is helping illustrate why Indiana’s middling protection has slowed the Thunder, who had the No. 3 offense within the steady season.
Game 4, 1/3 quarter: OKC commits a shot clock violation
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Facing a rising deficit in entrance of a frenzied Pacers crowd, Oklahoma City referred to as a timeout to regroup. But that plan failed. After Alex Caruso introduced up the ball — as a result of Nembhard’s persisted denial of SGA within the backcourt — Isaiah Hartenstein‘s handoff was once virtually a turnover, then Nembhard stonewalled Gilgeous-Alexander’s try to isolate within the midrange.
Eventually, with the shot clock winding down, the ball deflected out of bounds, and after any other deflection of the inbound cross, Indiana compelled a contravention.
This ownership illustrates Oklahoma City’s surprising loss of offensive go with the flow. It’s astonishing how a lot the Thunder have depended on tricky one-on-one scoring on this collection, versus rhythmic playmaking as a crew. The 3 lowest-assist video games of Oklahoma City’s season are:
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Game 4 of the Finals: 11 assists.
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Game 1 of the Finals: 13 assists.
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Game 3 of the Finals: 16 assists. (The Thunder had greater than 16 assists in each regular-season recreation with the exception of Game No. 82, once they had 16 with all their starters resting.)
That’s a large surprise to OKC’s device, because the crew averaged 27 assists within the steady season and 25 within the playoffs till the Finals. In Game 4, Gilgeous-Alexander did not have an help for the primary time in 5 years.
Game 4, fourth quarter: Aaron Nesmith fouls Gilgeous-Alexander
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Though Nesmith was once the Pacers’ key defender within the Eastern Conference finals, as he had the best good fortune guarding Jalen Brunson, Indiana prefers Nembhard to protect Gilgeous-Alexander. Nembhard has matched up in opposition to Gilgeous-Alexander on 187 possessions within the Finals, according to GeniusIQ, as opposed to 119 for the remainder of the Pacers blended.
The effects display why. Out of 27 defenders who’ve guarded SGA for a minimum of 10 matchups this postseason, his 3 very best points-per-matchup figures are in opposition to non-Nembhard Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin (0.89 features according to matchup), Nesmith (0.73) and Myles Turner (0.73). For comparability, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored most effective 0.33 features according to matchup in opposition to Nembhard.
Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be getting his conventional proportion of features within the Finals (32.8 features according to recreation, as opposed to 32.7 within the steady season), however Nembhard is making him paintings so much more difficult for them than someone else.
Those numbers may mirror a small pattern, however down the stretch of Game 4, the Thunder geared their offense towards transferring Nesmith onto Gilgeous-Alexander as an alternative. Oklahoma City — which usually asks its guards to set essentially the most alternatives within the league — many times despatched Gilgeous-Alexander to display screen for Williams, who was once being guarded via Nesmith, to coax Indiana right into a transfer.
Gilgeous-Alexander set 5 alternatives for Williams within the fourth quarter of Game 4 — tied for essentially the most in any quarter in their careers taking part in in combination, according to GeniusIQ. The different time was once the fourth quarter of Game 4 in opposition to the Dallas Mavericks in final 12 months’s playoffs, any other must-win recreation for the Thunder. They obviously believe this motion in determined moments.
Against Indiana, the ones 5 performs produced superb effects because the Thunder finished their comeback: a layup, a 3-pointer, two capturing fouls (which resulted in Nesmith fouling out) and an open midrange jumper that he neglected. The Thunder evened the collection, and Gilgeous-Alexander scored essentially the most features within the final 5 mins of a Finals recreation (15) since 1971.
Game 1, first quarter: Pascal Siakam makes a layup
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Indiana’s first made box function of the Finals showcased one merit for the Pacers: Siakam is simply too large and too adept at completing to change a guard onto him. Cason Wallace is a superb perimeter defender, however in this play, he could not be offering significant resistance as Indiana known the mismatch, cleared out one aspect of the courtroom and let Siakam pass to paintings.
Siakam, who received a identify with the 2018-19 Toronto Raptors, leads the Pacers within the Finals with 18.8 features and 7.8 rebounds according to recreation, and he is contributing 1.8 steals and 1.3 blocks. He’s on tempo to turn out to be the 12th participant this century to common 18/7/1/1 within the Finals, becoming a member of an elite checklist: Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan (two times), Dwyane Wade (two times), Kevin Garnett, LeBron James (thrice), Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Andrew Wiggins.
But it is Siakam’s skill to weigh down smaller defenders at the block that has had such a lot affect at the Finals. It’s now not simply that it lets in Siakam to generate simple buckets, that are uncommon by contrast traditionally nice Thunder protection. It’s additionally that Siakam compelled Thunder trainer Mark Daigneault to switch his recreation plan. For Game 4, Daigneault reinserted Hartenstein into the beginning lineup, changing Wallace to present the Thunder extra dimension.
The Thunder’s double-big lineup opens holes in different places, although, as it reduces Oklahoma City’s pace at the flooring — which is vital when countering Indiana’s high-octane assault. The Pacers are well-rounded sufficient that they pressure trade-offs from their warring parties, and Siakam, together with his skill to run the ground and gear thru defenders on the rim, is the epitome of that power.
Game 4, 1/3 quarter: Nembhard makes a 3-pointer
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
The Thunder allowed essentially the most nook 3s this season, and the Pacers have taken merit. On this play, some artful Tyrese Haliburton head and ball fakes created an open search for Nembhard. But NBA groups attempt to keep away from serving to off the strong-side nook — as a result of this kickout cross could be simple for any guard, let on my own the playoff chief in assists according to recreation.
The Thunder are extra competitive with this type of assist than different groups. Usually, that is to their get advantages and they have got the staff to make it paintings, however Indiana has twisted the Thunder’s dispositions in opposition to them. The Pacers are 25-for-52 on nook 3s (48%) within the Finals, as opposed to 27-for-87 (31%) above the destroy. Corner pictures account for just about 1/2 in their 3-point makes on most effective a couple of 1/3 in their makes an attempt.
For comparability, Oklahoma City has matched Indiana with 27 above-the-break 3s, however has long gone most effective 11-for-33 from the corners. That disparity has granted Indiana 14 extra 3s total, or 42 additional features from past the arc.
Indiana’s sizzling capturing from the corners most probably would possibly not regress a lot because the Finals proceed. Throughout the postseason, the Pacers are capturing 47% on nook 3s. That’s the most efficient mark for any crew (minimal 100 makes an attempt) for the reason that Phoenix Suns shot 48% from the corners within the 2009-10 playoffs.
Game 3, first quarter: Obi Toppin makes a layup
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
So, if the Pacers are producing some mismatches, even in opposition to the Thunder’s ferocious protection, and are feasting on nook 3s, then why is Indiana scoring simply 109.8 features according to 100 possessions within the Finals, after topping 116 within the earlier playoff rounds?
This bucket offers a touch. It was once the results of a dynamite play from Haliburton, who intercepted a cross, created a 3-on-2 rapid destroy and tossed in a sprinkle of razzle-dazzle as he went at the back of the again in midair and located Toppin chopping to the ring.
But this series sticks out, partly, as a result of how absent that open-court verve, which defines Indiana’s offense, has been in those Finals.
Over the postseason, the Pacers have scored 127 features according to 100 possibilities in transition, as opposed to simply 102 features according to 100 possibilities within the 1/2 courtroom, according to GeniusIQ. Among groups that complex no less than one spherical, most effective the Minnesota Timberwolves had a bigger hole, so it is the most important for Indiana to run.
That’s more uncomplicated mentioned than executed in opposition to Oklahoma City. Transition play has accounted for 11% of the Pacers’ possibilities in opposition to Oklahoma City, according to GeniusIQ, as opposed to 15% within the first 3 rounds and 16% within the steady season. Indiana was once some of the widespread transition groups previous within the playoffs however has fallen to the ground of that statistic in opposition to the Thunder.
Minnesota adopted a identical development: The Timberwolves had an above-average transition price within the first two rounds, however an insignificant 11% transition price in opposition to the Thunder within the convention finals. That’s a large explanation why the Timberwolves’ offense sputtered and Oklahoma City reached the Finals, and it is why Indiana is suffering to attain greater than ever.
Game 2, moment quarter: Indiana loses the ball out of bounds
Preview for the next day’s piece, sooner than Game 5 pic.twitter.com/CdJ3UchN0N
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Haliburton does not have the popularity of an isolation grasp, however his numbers inform a special tale. Over the previous 3 seasons, Haliburton leads all high-volume gamers with 1.16 features according to isolation that leads immediately to a shot, turnover or foul, according to GeniusIQ. (SGA is moment, 0.002 features according to iso at the back of Haliburton.)
That effectiveness most commonly persisted throughout the convention finals. But in opposition to Oklahoma City, the Pacers have scored simply 0.50 features according to Haliburton isolation. It’s a small pattern, however a very powerful one, as a result of a number of of Haliburton’s failed isolations got here as Indiana’s offense stalled down the stretch of Game 4.
On this play from Game 2, Haliburton failed to seek out a gap in opposition to Chet Holmgren in house, in the long run forcing a cross that trickled out of bounds for a turnover. Haliburton has maneuvered previous Holmgren for contested layups a few occasions within the collection, however this early play presaged his issue attacking any Thunder participant via himself.
While Oklahoma City and Indiana boast two of the private rotations within the league, this intently contested Finals may well be determined in crunch time via Haliburton and Gilgeous-Alexander, and whether or not they are able to beat their guy one-on-one. In Game 1, SGA neglected a midrange jumper, and Haliburton took merit with a recreation winner.
In Game 4, Gilgeous-Alexander tormented Nesmith down the stretch whilst Haliburton squandered a few the most important isolation alternatives, letting the Thunder again into the collection and environment the level for a livid best-of-three to complete the 2024-25 season.
