Apple and Samsung smartphone expansion to take hit from tariff uncertainty: Counterpoint Research

Forecasts for Apple and Samsung cargo expansion this 12 months had been sharply slashed through Counterpoint Research on Wednesday amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff coverage.

The analysis outfit mentioned it had revised down its 2025 world smartphone cargo expansion forecast to 1.9% year-on-year from 4.2% prior to now, mentioning “renewed uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs.”

U.S. President Donald Trump introduced “reciprocal tariffs” on imports from nations all over the world in April, however exempted smartphones and different electronics from the ones tasks days later.

Still, with tariff uncertainty looming, Counterpoint Research slashed its expansion forecast for the sector’s two greatest smartphone avid gamers. Apple shipments are anticipated to develop 2.5% year-on-year in 2025, down from a prior forecast of 4%, consistent with Counterpoint Research. Samsung shipments are actually expected to look no expansion this 12 months, in comparison with the 1.7% upward push that was once prior to now projected.

But it isn’t simply price lists at the back of those revised forecasts.

“All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia,” Counterpoint Research Associate Director Liz Lee mentioned in a press free up.

Apple’s downgraded cargo expansion will likely be pushed through the iPhone 16 sequence of units, in addition to through rising marketplace shoppers purchasing costlier telephones, Counterpoint mentioned.

Shipments aren’t an identical to gross sales and constitute the collection of units that smartphones distributors ship to shops. They are one measure of the call for that smartphone distributors expect.

Apple specifically has come below scrutiny amid communicate of U.S. price lists on China, the place the U.S. massive makes 90% of its iPhones. Apple has ramped up its shipments to the U.S. from India, the place it’s been often expanding manufacturing of its flagship product.

But this has additionally drawn the ire of Trump, who remaining month mentioned that he does not need Apple construction iPhones in India, and that they will have to be production them within the U.S.

Counterpoint Research flagged Huawei as a vivid spot within the sea of diminished forecasts, with the Chinese tech massive anticipated to notch a 11% year-on-year cargo expansion in 2025.

“We are seeing an easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components at least through the rest of the year, which should help Huawei grab substantial share in the mid-to-lower-end segments at home,” Ethan Qi, affiliate director at Counterpoint Research, mentioned in a press free up.

Huawei has noticed a rebound in smartphone gross sales in its house marketplace of China since past due 2023, the place a breakthrough in semiconductors for its units, helped revive its fortunes.