Why Geelong has had the toughest AFL fixture checklist thus far – and Carlton the very best

As the AFL approaches the halfway level of the season earlier than 5 rounds of byes, it’s the very best time for footy lovers to sit down again and sweetness, “Is my team going to be playing footy this September?”

I’m an Eagles supporter, so I don’t have to fret about asking myself that.

At first look, the AFL ladder turns out to make sense. Collingwood sit down on peak, Brisbane and Gold Coast are flying, and groups like St Kilda and Port Adelaide are scratching their heads, questioning the way it’s all slipping away. But once we overlay the fixture issue ratings, a distinct image emerges. One that finds who’s been examined and who’s merely coasting.

I’ve risen above intestine emotions and indignant fan tweets. I’ve achieved the math. This is the respectable, medical, 100% stats-backed investigation into which AFL staff has had the very best run to the midway mark of the 2025 season. We can now separate the real contenders from the ladder illusions.

So how can we measure “easiest”?, now not with vibes. We dig into:
– Opponent Wins – Total selection of video games your combatants have received.
– Opponent Wins Adjusted – We subtract the wins they were given towards you. Why? Because another way you glance tricky only for shedding.
– Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) – This is the golden stat. It’s the adjusted wins divided via opponent video games minus your personal recreation(s) towards them. The decrease this quantity, the better your season has been.

The effects are… (so as of toughest fixture to simplest)
1. Geelong (FDR: 5.7)
2. Western Bulldogs (5.5)
3. Sydney (5.5)
4. Collingwood (5.4)
5. North Melbourne (5.2)
6. West Coast (5.0)
7. Port Adelaide (5.0)
8. GWS Giants (5.0)
9. Adelaide (5.0)
10. Brisbane (5.0)
11. St Kilda (4.9)
12. Melbourne (4.9)
13. Hawthorn (4.9)
14. Essendon (4.8)
15. Gold Coast (4.7)
16. Fremantle (4.6)
17. Richmond (4.5)
18. Carlton (4.5)
*NOTE: Order is decided via FDR, adopted via opponent wins

THE TOP 5 TOUGHEST FIXTURES SO FAR
1. Geelong (FDR: 5.7, Ladder Position: fifth)
The Cats have achieved smartly to sit down within the peak 5, taking into consideration they’ve confronted the hardest draw of any staff. Their fixture has integrated clashes with six of a conceivable seven top-eight groups, together with Brisbane, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood, GWS, and the Western Bulldogs. Geelong have a moderately simple ultimate draw, and appear to be an outfit that may do harm come finals.

2. Western Bulldogs (FDR: 5.5, Ladder Position: seventh)
Sitting simply within the 8, the Bulldogs’ shape has been patchy, however have proven they may be able to be an actual risk come September as they in finding an more uncomplicated run house.

3. Sydney (FDR: 5.5, Ladder Position: 13th)
This is a key perception. The Swans were underperforming this season, failing to reply after their 60 level Grand Final loss closing yr, however they have got confronted some of the hardest schedules thus far. If their draw softens — and they may be able to in finding shape — a second-half resurgence may be very conceivable. Do now not rule out the Swans but.

4. Collingwood (FDR: 5.4, Ladder Position: 1st)
The Pies sit down atop the ladder regardless of a prime issue ranking. That’s ominous for the remainder of the league. They’ve been examined — and feature handed with flying colors. They have a smartly balanced fixture ultimate, with many winnable video games in addition to some tricky demanding situations.

5. North Melbourne (FDR: 5.2, Ladder Position: 17th)
With handiest two wins and a draw at their midway level, the fixture hasn’t achieved the Kanga’s any favours. While North Melbourne have problems, their tricky opponent set suggests one of the losses are extra comprehensible. In fresh weeks t good day have equipped a lot more of a combat to just right high quality aspects, together with a draw to Brisbane in Round 9. A win in Round 10 was once a lot deserved for a soccer membership that have had their justifiable share of struggles over the past seven years.

SOFTEST FIXTURES SO FAR (LOWEST FDRs)
18. Carlton (FDR: 4.5, Ladder Position: 12th)
Carlton stocks the bottom FDR within the league, that means they’ve had the very best fixture to this point — and but they sit down out of doors the tip 8. The Blues’ 7–4 file flatters them reasonably when seen in gentle in their draw. They’ve performed 5 of the ground six aspects (West Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, and Sydney), whilst they’ve have shyed away from 5 of the top-eight groups. Carlton’s underlying efficiency has been every other yr of sadness for Blue’s lovers. Their FDR suggests they’ve had an opportunity to construct a robust win-loss buffer — however haven’t totally capitalised. That makes their moment 1/2 of the season essential, with their fixture toughing up from right here.

17. Richmond (FDR: 4.5, Ladder Position: 16th)
Richmond entered 2025 with modest expectancies. Many tipped them for the picket spoon, and a few pundits didn’t be expecting them to win a recreation. So with 3 wins from their first 11 and a batch of aggressive performances, they’re arguably forward of expectancies. But context issues — they’ve had the equal-easiest fixture within the league thus far. Of all bottom-four aspects, none has had a softer draw than Richmond. In distinction, West Coast (FDR: 5.0) and North Melbourne (5.2) have confronted considerably more potent oppositions. Richmond isn’t failing — they’re rebuilding. And whilst their FDR suggests they’ve had possibilities to notch wins, their precedence obviously stays building over effects. As the fixture will get harder from right here, don’t be stunned if wins dry up additional. But for Tigers lovers, it’s much less in regards to the ladder and extra about seeing enlargement from their children.

16. Fremantle (FDR: 4.6, Ladder Position: ninth)
The Dockers have quietly constructed a finals push however on a moderately mild agenda. They’ve benefited from video games towards weaker combatants, however have struggled enjoying in Victoria the place they have got suffered losses to Geelong, Melbourne, and St Kilda. Still, they’ve achieved what they had to do — financial institution wins. They in finding themselves simply 4% out of doors the 8.

15. Gold Coast Suns (FDR: 4.7, Ladder Position: third)
While starting the season with moderately in all probability the very best fixture on file, the previous few weeks the Suns were put to the check… and feature delivered. With cast victories towards the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn in Darwin, the Suns subsidized themselves up with a victory towards St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Sunday. They will have to make finals, even a peak 4 spot, if they may be able to proceed to win house video games and win video games at the highway.

It’s no wonder to look Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, and Collingwood keeping sturdy given the extent of opposition they’ve confronted — they’ve achieved it the exhausting method. The Fixture Difficulty Ratings display that wins haven’t come cost effectively for some golf equipment — and in a couple of circumstances, the ladder doesn’t replicate the trouble. As the fixture begins to turn, those that’ve survived the hurricane may simply surge when it issues maximum. September remains to be months away, however the foundations are being laid now — and a few groups are higher constructed for it than others.