UFC Fight Night: Does Burns’ have a best possible trail to finishing Morales’ unbeaten run?

Former UFC welterweight identify challenger Gilbert Burns makes his first Octagon look of 2025 when he squares off with undefeated Michael Morales in the primary match at UFC Fight Night on Saturday (ESPN+, 7 p.m. ET major card, 4 p.m. prelims).

Burns, ESPN’s No. 8-ranked welterweight, enters the combat in search of his first victory since April 2023, when he beat Jorge Masvidal by way of unanimous determination at UFC 287. He has misplaced every of his final 3 fights, together with a unanimous determination loss to Sean Brady final September.

Morales, unranked by way of ESPN, has gained six immediately fights within the UFC. Most not too long ago, he beat Neil Magny by way of first-round knockout final August.

Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA trainer Eric Nicksick to get his viewpoint at the UFC major match. ESPN making a bet knowledgeable Ian Parker provides perception and research at the major match and different intriguing bets he likes at the card.

Editor’s word: Responses were edited for brevity and readability.

Welterweight: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA trainer

How Burns wins: Burns’ recreation plans normally revolve round power, clinch entries and grappling. Morales has an 8-inch achieve merit, so Gilbert cannot play the variability recreation. He’s were given to near distance in the back of feints and large degree adjustments, and crash the pocket. He may take a look at a double jab into the frame lock or a low kick right into a takedown. Once he is completed that, his grappling is world-class. Burns has to make Morales recognize the takedown makes an attempt and provides him the specter of again publicity or best power. That risk by myself will sluggish Morales’ putting output. If this turns into a filthy, grind-it-out combat previous Round 2, it favors Gilbert. He’s been in that deep water prior to, however Morales hasn’t.

How Morales wins: It’s about self-discipline, footwork and sticking to the basics. Burns is explosive, however he is somewhat linear. Morales can select him off with immediately punches and occasional kicks. Morales has additionally proven cast stability and hips in his takedown protection. If he stuffs Gilbert’s pictures early within the combat, he will begin to construct self belief. Once Morales will get in rhythm, his output can snowball rapid. He has benefits on this combat, however Burns will attempt to drag him into chaotic sequences. Morales cannot get grasping. If he fights with endurance and avoids the bottom, he will have the cleaner paintings.

X issue: Composure in transition. This combat will swing right through the ones cut up seconds the place vary collapses. Can Morales stay his composure when Burns blitzes?

Prediction: Morales to win by way of overdue TKO or determination. But this combat will take a look at his adulthood. If he passes, he is for actual.

Betting research

Odds correct as of newsletter. For essentially the most up-to-date odds, discuss with ESPN BET.

Parker: Morales to win by way of KO/TKO (-130). Morales, a blue chip prospect who ranked No. 3 on ESPN’s MMA 25 underneath 25 record in 2023, will get his first UFC major match towards the at all times tricky Burns. As a heavy favourite, Morales is anticipated to steamroll Burns, and I do not disagree. Burns is at his best possible when he’s taking his opponent down and makes use of his jiu-jitsu to regulate the combat. However, Morales has impeccable takedown protection and is most likely the simpler wrestler. He could also be the extra bodily implementing athlete. Look for Morales to effectively stuff Burns’ takedown makes an attempt and in the end get the TKO win.

Parker’s best possible bets on the remainder of the cardboard

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Julian Erosa makes use of a first-round submission to take a win over Ricardo Ramos

Julian Erosa will get Ricardo Ramos with a guillotine choke within the first around to take house a win by way of submission.

Middleweight: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Ruziboev to win (-320), underneath 2.5 rounds. Ruziboev is getting the very best matchup towards Stoltzfus to begin a brand new profitable streak within the Octagon. While Stoltzfus is coming off a knockout win of his personal, he’s liable to getting tagged early and steadily, and towards Ruziboev, that could be a recipe for purchasing knocked out. With Ruziboev these days sitting as a close to -300 favourite, put him on your parlay. If you’ll quite take him as a separate play, take him to win and underneath 2.5 rounds to get well odds.

Featherweight: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

Fight does no longer move the space. This has each and every alternative to be combat of the evening. These two warring parties at all times carry the motion. Erosa has a kill-or-be-killed mentality with an 84% end fee when he wins. In losses, his contests have a 64% end fee. For Costa, 4 of his six UFC appearances have ended by way of end. This combat will move one in all two tactics: Either Costa succumbs to the power and quantity of Erosa, or Costa catches Erosa in a submission following a mistake. Either means, this combat does not make it to the overall bell.

Strawweight: Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro

Pennington to win by way of determination. Pinheiro is on a three-fight dropping streak, and it is exhausting to believe she does not undergo a fourth loss right here. As the combat is going on, if it does not move in Pinheiro’s prefer, she has a tendency to vanish. Pennington has an unending fuel tank and is the simpler fighter anyplace the combat is going. This matchup screams Pennington profitable by way of determination.