Trump’s Golden Dome defence venture may spur an area palms race

US President Donald Trump has proposed a defence venture, referred to as the Golden Dome, to intercept any incoming hypersonic, ballistic and complicated cruise missiles that threaten the rustic.

“Once fully constructed, the Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world and even if they are launched from space,” mentioned Trump right through the White House announcement on 20 May.

But any such thorough interception machine will not be imaginable. Some mavens additionally warn that, despite the fact that it really works, the Golden Dome would take a minimum of a decade to construct, value greater than part one thousand billion bucks – and boost up the worldwide nuclear palms race and the weaponisation of area.

What is the Golden Dome?

The venture’s identify is impressed by way of Israel’s Iron Dome machine, which makes use of ground-based missiles to intercept incoming rockets and artillery fired from somewhat brief distances. But the Golden Dome would want to protect a a ways higher house – the land mass of the contiguous US by myself is greater than 350 instances the dimensions of Israel – from a greater variety of subtle missiles.

According to Trump and his officers, the machine must have the ability to counter ballistic missiles which may be introduced from the opposite aspect of the sector, complicated cruise missiles that fly on flatter trajectories at decrease altitudes and hypersonic missiles that may fly and manoeuvre at speeds exceeding Mach 5, 5 instances the rate of sound. These missiles can elevate both nuclear warheads or typical explosive warheads.

To locate and intercept the threats, the Golden Dome will use each “space-based sensors and air and missile defense”, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth mentioned in a observation. That implies an umbrella machine of “Golden Domes” with other applied sciences countering other threats, says David Burbach on the Naval War College in Rhode Island, who shared some feedback with New Scientist in a private capability.

However, no longer all of those defences exist. For example, the Golden Dome would supposedly use space-based interceptor missiles in low Earth orbit, an remarkable technological feat that hasn’t ever been demonstrated ahead of, says Thomas González Roberts on the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta.

A equivalent concept, nicknamed Star Wars, used to be at the beginning proposed by way of US President Ronald Reagan in his Strategic Defense Initiative right through the chilly warfare. In reality, Trump has described the Golden Dome as an effort to finish “the job that President Reagan started 40 years ago”.

How will the Golden Dome paintings?

Missile defence mavens describe the problem of intercepting long-range nuclear missiles as being like “hitting a bullet with a bullet, in the dark” as a result of “the targets are small, not emitting any radio or infrared signals, and fast moving”, says Burbach. “One thing to keep in mind is that even optimistic technical experts admit 100 per cent interception is unlikely.”

The US already has a machine of ground-based interceptor missiles, based totally in Alaska. They can shoot down “a couple dozen incoming warheads at best”, says Burbach. He additionally identified that Russia and China are growing countermeasures to make it more difficult to locate and intercept their missiles.

“Stopping subsonic cruise missiles or short-range ballistic missiles launched from just outside US borders would use established technology, but it could be expensive to deploy enough of those defensive systems to cover the whole country,” says Burbach. “The real challenge will be Golden Dome’s aim to stop large numbers of intercontinental missiles – President Trump said ‘100 per cent’ of them – such as an attack from China or Russia.”

Trump’s declare that the Golden Dome would protect towards missile moves from the opposite aspect of the sector and even from area implies it might require a “dense constellation of likely low-Earth orbiting, space-based missile interceptors that could deorbit and strike a missile within minutes of it launching” from anyplace, says Roberts.

“The number of satellites you would need is bigger than any constellation that’s ever been launched,” he says. Currently, the biggest constellation is composed of round 7000 Starlink satellites operated by way of SpaceX.

How a lot will the Golden Dome value?

Trump proposed the cheap of $175 billion for the Golden Dome, despite the fact that that investment has no longer but been authorized by way of the USA Congress. And the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan federal company, estimated {that a} space-based interceptor machine like Golden Dome may value up to $542 billion.

“It’s unclear what expenditures are included in the $175 billion figure,” says Patrycja Bazylczyk on the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a assume tank in Washington DC.

Trump additionally claimed the Golden Dome could be “fully operational” by way of the top of his 2nd time period in administrative center in early 2029, despite the fact that mavens doubt this is imaginable. “The three-year timeline is aggressive – this initiative is likely to span at least a decade, if not more,” says Bazylczyk.

Much of the timeline might rely upon what number of current army techniques it makes use of. “Significant progress is feasible in the near term, including fielding new interceptors, over-the-horizon radars, space-based sensors and technology demonstrations,” says Bazylczyk.

But there are primary obstacles to how briefly the USA may release the possibly hundreds of satellites required for Golden Dome – to mention not anything of growing the space-based interceptor applied sciences.

“I think you’d be very hard-pressed to find a launch cadence that could support a large constellation going up in just three years,” says Roberts. “SpaceX launches more things more often than anyone in the history of space operations, and the ask here is to crack open that ceiling even further.”

“I think it is almost impossible a system could be ‘fully operational’ in the sense of ‘stop 100 per cent of a missile attack’ that quickly,” says Burbach. “Reaching even a small-scale operational capability that soon would be very difficult.”

Will Golden Dome make the USA more secure?

There is already an ongoing palms race between the USA, China and Russia, with all 3 international locations modernising and increasing their nuclear arsenals, in addition to growing space-based techniques to strengthen their militaries.

If the Golden Dome machine can reinforce US air and missile defences, it will “change the strategic calculus” by way of lowering the arrogance of any missile-armed adversary, deterring them from launching assaults within the first position, says Bazylczyk.

On the opposite hand, the Golden Dome has the “potential to contribute to instability” by way of “signalling to your nuclear adversaries that you simply don’t trust them”, says Roberts. China’s overseas ministry answered to Trump’s announcement by way of pronouncing the Golden Dome carries “strong offensive implications” and raises the hazards of an palms race in area. A Kremlin spokesperson instructed the Golden Dome plans may result in resumption of nuclear palms keep watch over discussions between Russia and the USA.

To counter the program, China and Russia would possibly attempt to “destroy or disable US satellites”, says Burbach. Both international locations have already got missiles able to taking pictures down satellites, they usually may additionally attempt to electronically jam or hack US satellite tv for pc techniques, he says. In February 2024, the USA govt warned that Russia had plans to release an area weapon able to disabling or destroying satellites, most likely the use of a nuclear explosion.

These international locations may additionally bulk up their missile arsenals and most likely broaden extra manoeuvrable guns that still use decoys, says Burbach. He identified that Russia has already began growing guns much less liable to space-based interception, comparable to intercontinental nuclear torpedoes that trip underwater.