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Illegal immigration and asylum: are govt pledges heading in the right direction?

Illegal immigration and asylum: are govt pledges heading in the right direction?

Rob England and Tom Edgington

BBC Verify

Getty Images Migrants onboard a rubber boat in the ChannelGetty Images

The high minister has made tackling unlawful immigration and “restoring order” to the asylum device a concern for the federal government.

Sir Keir Starmer has promised to “smash the gangs”. It follows predecessor Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats”.

Yet small boat crossings have reached report ranges for this level within the yr.

Ahead of the discharge of the newest professional numbers on Thursday, BBC Verify appears at key govt pledges – from finishing the usage of asylum lodges to returning extra failed asylum seekers.

‘End the usage of asylum lodges’

Labour promised to “finish asylum lodges, saving the taxpayer billions of kilos” in its normal election manifesto.

The govt needs to fulfil this pledge by means of the tip of this Parliament – that means by means of 2029, except an early election is known as.

However, consistent with figures bought by means of BBC Verify by the use of a Freedom of Information request, the selection of lodges used to deal with asylum seekers used to be upper in December than when Labour took place of job in July.

Line chart showing the number of hotels used to house asylum seekers between 2020 and December 2024. They rise from December 2020 to 2021 from about 90 to about 190. Then again in 2022 to 300 and then again in 2023 to about 400. They then lower to 218 by December 2024

In July, 212 lodges had been in use. By December, there have been 218 – accommodating about 38,000 humans.

Once any person applies for asylum, they acquire felony protections whilst expecting a choice – together with lodging in the event that they can not toughen themselves financially.

Almost everybody who arrives by means of small boat claims asylum – they made up a 3rd of all asylum packages remaining yr. Another massive crew of claimants had been humans already in the United Kingdom who had overstayed their visas.

The asylum procedure determines whether or not an individual can stay in the United Kingdom as a result of they’ve a “well-founded fear of persecution” of their house nation.

Since 2020, the federal government has been more and more reliant on lodges, partially since the provide of different sorts of asylum lodging has no longer saved up with the numbers arriving in small boats.

But the use of asylum lodges is pricey – costing £8m in keeping with day in 2023-24.

‘Smash the gangs’

As of 14 May, 12,699 humans had arrived in the United Kingdom in small boats – up by means of a 3rd when put next with this time remaining yr.

To cut back the selection of crossings, the federal government has pledged to disrupt the people-smuggling gangs in the back of them.

Chart showing small boat crossings totals by year between 2021 and 2025. All years tend to start with lower numbers, under 10,000 until at least June, then increase significantly between August and November. 2021 is the lowest total at about 28,000, while 2022 is the highest with more than 40,000 crossings. Figures to mid May 2025 show 12,699 crossings, which is the highest so far for that point in the year of any previous years.

But it’s unclear how the federal government plans to measure its growth, or when the objective will likely be met.

The Home Office advised us knowledge on movements taken by means of officers to disrupt prison gangs used to be “being collected and may be published in the future”.

There is a few knowledge on efforts to stop small boat crossings by means of French government – who, beneath a 2023 deal, are receiving £476m from the United Kingdom over 3 years.

They say about 17,379 humans had been averted from crossing between July and December 2024. We have no idea what came about to them or whether or not they attempted to go once more.

There were high-profile circumstances of UK-based smugglers being sentenced, together with a person who helped smuggle greater than 3,000 humans and raids at the continent.

And on the contemporary UK-EU summit each side pledged to paintings in combination on discovering answers to take on unlawful immigration.

Illegal migration comprises individuals who arrive on small boats, or hidden in lorries, and those who stay in the United Kingdom after their felony visa expires.

The overwhelming majority of UK immigration is felony – this comprises individuals who were granted permission to come back to paintings, find out about, declare asylum or for different authorized functions.

Last yr, about 43,000 humans entered the United Kingdom illegally – about 4% of the just about 1,000,000 individuals who got here to the United Kingdom legally in 2024.

‘Clear the asylum backlog’

The govt has additionally promised “to transparent the asylum backlog“.

This refers back to the backlog of claims by means of asylum seekers who’re ready to listen to whether or not they’ll be granted refugee standing and be allowed to stay in the United Kingdom.

Since remaining summer season, there was a 50% building up in selections on asylum circumstances.

A line chart showing the number of decisions being made on asylum cases and the number of people applying for asylum. The number of decisions is generally lower than applications from 2020 through to late 2023. The numbers fluctuate between 5,000 and 30,000. Decisions then rapidly rise to more than 60,000 before falling back to 16,000 in early 2024. Decisions then rise in the latest quarter to about 38,000 in December 2024. Applications rise steadily throughout to about 30,000 in December 2024

But regardless of this, the United Kingdom noticed a report selection of asylum packages around the yr, that means the total backlog has in truth risen for the reason that election.

Under Labour, 41% of asylum claims had been granted between October and December 2024.

Bar chart showing the backlog of asylum cases waiting to be decided on by the government. The bars hover at about 20,000 to 40,000 for most of the 2010's, starting to rise consistently in 2018 to a peak in 2023 of about 160,000. This then drops to about 120,000 - where it is now.

Another backlog the federal government needs to transparent is the mountain of courtroom appeals from asylum seekers following rejected claims.

That backlog has additionally were given worse since remaining summer season’s election, consistent with the newest figures.

There had been about 33,000 circumstances on the finish of June, emerging to almost 42,000 in December – the absolute best overall since a minimum of 2015.

Line chart showing the open asylum appeals caseload. The line starts at about 9,000 in 2015, remaining below 10,000 until 2023 where it rises rapidly to the current total of 43,000.

‘Increase returns’

The govt has additionally promised to “increase returns” of humans and not using a felony proper to be in the United Kingdom. It mentioned it could arrange a brand new returns and enforcement unit with 1,000 additional body of workers.

Between July 2024 (when Labour got here to energy) and May 2025, there have been 29,867 returns recorded by means of the Home Office.

This is up 12% in comparison to the similar length 12 months in the past.

So the federal government is assembly this pledge however it’s price noting that simply 7,893 humans had been forcibly got rid of – which might contain being escorted on a airplane by means of an immigration professional.

The figures additionally display 8,511 failed asylum seekers had been returned on this length however they don’t say what number of had been enforced or voluntary.

Separate govt figures from July to December gave a fuller breakdown appearing a lot of those that did depart voluntarily did so with out govt help of even its wisdom on the time, as BBC Verify has up to now identified.

Area chart showing immigration returns from the UK supported by the government and made independently. The chart starts in 2010 where about 12,000 returns were made, just over half were government supported. The number of all returns then falls dramatically from 2017 through to 2020, before beginning to rise again in both categories to December 2024. The latest totals are 5,773 government supported and 2,758 independent, with the government supported total rising consistently.

This is regardless of repeated claims from ministers that the federal government has “removed” and even “deported” this many of us.

The Home Office says all returns results are the results of collective efforts by means of the dept.

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