‘Hollowing out’: New Zealand grapples with an unsure long run as document numbers go away

She considers herself a diehard South Island girl, however Harriet Baker, 33, gained’t be elevating her youngsters within the town the place she’s spent maximum of her existence.

“When we bought our house I said, ‘You’ll be taking me out of here in a casket,” she says, of the Dunedin house she and husband Cameron Baker, 33, offered closing month.

“But the living costs just keep climbing, you’re working hard and you can’t put any money away – it felt like we were treading water.”

Their possessions at the moment are winding their method to Western Australia, the place the couple, their son Teddy, 2, and canine Hiccup, 8, relocated closing week. Cameron will paintings as a heavy diesel mechanic within the mines whilst Harriet, previously a public servant, would be the number one caregiver.

Harriet want to give Teddy a Kiwi upbringing round his New Zealand-based grandparents, however she is aware of that would possibly no longer occur.

“It does feel crazy that we’re leaving them. But that Australian income just flipped the switch for us.”

The Baker circle of relatives are amongst a surge of exits from New Zealand, most commonly fleeing a susceptible financial system, in an exodus this is fuelling fear for the rustic’s long run and has small cities scrambling for survival. Demographers are specifically nervous as every age of New Zealanders – no longer simply younger other people – are packing their baggage.

“I don’t know why we’re not talking about this more. We have a steep decline in fertility, a rapidly ageing population, and, out of Covid, we are seeing the rise and rise of departures,” says Massey University’s emeritus professor Paul Spoonley, a number one sociologist.

“Parts of New Zealand are beginning to empty out, they will suffer stagnation or are in decline. The question for me is – will the number of New Zealanders leaving the country begin to come back?” Spoonley says.

Workforce ‘hollowing out’

Over the previous two years, tens of 1000’s of New Zealanders have left the rustic, surpassing the closing spike in 2012. Record numbers of New Zealand migrants left the rustic via 2023 and into 2024. Figures stay prime, with 69,100 leaving within the yr to February 2025 – about 3% greater than at the moment closing yr.

Overall, extra new migrants are nonetheless arriving in New Zealand than departing. But closing yr noticed the most important internet lack of New Zealanders than any calendar yr on document. About 56% of New Zealand emigrants – the ones making plans to reside out of the country for a yr or extra – head to Australia, the place the moderate pay charge is 26% upper.

For the ones elderly 20-29, a backpacker-style out of the country enjoy in Australia is a time-honoured ceremony of passage. They are nonetheless the most important workforce leaving New Zealand however now, they’re being adopted via 30-39-year-olds and their youngsters, in addition to an unparalleled collection of retirees – teams which might be thought to be much less most likely to go back.

“We talk about where the “centre of gravity” for a circle of relatives is, and when you’ve were given folks, grandchildren or grownup youngsters dwelling in other places, you’re relocating your centre of gravity,” Spoonley mentioned.

Experts also are nervous concerning the affect at the staff, now and at some point. This is partly because of operating age other people leaving New Zealand, and compounded via tighter immigration laws closing yr which might be seeing fewer other people approaching paintings visas.

“This is a hollowing out of this demographic of mid-career workers, who in reality do the bulk of the work,” mentioned Simplicity leader economist Shamubeel Eaqub. “That’s the jaws of death closing, and then we have labour market problems.”

Small cities shrink

The prime value of dwelling, at the side of wages, activity stipulations and problem discovering employment have been some of the causes given for transferring via the ones spoken to via the Guardian. Many didn’t wish to go away, however felt they have been left without a choice after suffering to get via.

It’s a tale repeated in small cities throughout New Zealand.

In Ohakune, a North Island ski the city, native Māori tribe (iwi) Ngāti Rangi are amongst the ones making an attempt to determine get other people to stick. The space is in decline, with shuttered stores and ‘For Sale’ indicators proof of a inhabitants drop of just about a 3rd since 1996 – a countrywide development demographers say presentations no signal of slowing, as a majority of latest migrants transfer to Auckland.

“This is not a good news story for provincial and small town Aotearoa and it’s happening gradually, town by town and region by region,” says Tahu Kukutai, a demographer and co-director for Māori analysis centre Ngā Pae o Te Maramatanga.

More just lately in Ohakune, the closure of 2 generators via Winstone Pulp International in 2024 noticed the lack of about 220 jobs. Jude Sinai, Ngāti Rangi’s redundancy enhance liaison, mentioned about 10% of employees had moved out of the country, others have been suffering to seek out seasonal paintings or decrease paying jobs.

“We’ve had new recruits who bought homes at the higher end of the market, they didn’t see this coming, now they’re trying to service a mortgage shearing or mowing lawns. They think; ‘Do I go overseas and try to make it happen there?’”

The iwi has introduced trade classes to check out to upskill households, and is pushing for tourism companies to make use of extra locals – anything else to get them to stick.

“Trying to get public services here is already so difficult, and when you take the numbers out of the area you get less attention. School rolls drop, there are teacher layoffs, lack of healthcare. We’re doing everything we can to lessen the magnitude of that scarring,” Sinai says.

To spice up the financial system, the centre-right National birthday celebration govt has mentioned it’s going to minimize new spending via $1bn to cut back borrowing and debt. Some economists say that would sluggish the restoration whilst Labour chief Chris Hipkins criticised spending discounts as a call for participation to younger New Zealanders to transport out of the country. Thousands of jobs had been minimize from the general public provider since 2023.

Finance minister, Nicola Willis, rejected the ones claims and instructed the Guardian the federal government would build up spending total and lower your expenses via slicing pointless services and products. Willis mentioned she “wanted see more New Zealanders choosing to stay here”. She mentioned younger other people leaving New Zealand was once an ongoing problem, which may well be addressed via rising the financial system.

“I am very concerned if New Zealanders don’t believe that they have good prospects in New Zealand. I want people to see that this is a place of enormous economic future and enormous social future.”

But the ones out of the country can’t see what would cause them to transfer house. Waikauri Hirini, 27, was once a social employee within the small the city of Te Kuiti within the central North Island earlier than transferring to Perth to enroll in 3 generations of her circle of relatives who already reside over there, and paintings as a financial institution teller.

“I started on $48,000 and I never got a pay rise, I had a high caseload, I was stressed,” she says.

“When I graduated I couldn’t wait to help my community, where I grew up, but I just became burnt out and I thought ‘I don’t want this to be my life anymore’.

“Now, we’re really settled. It would make me sad if I didn’t bring my children up back home, learning the Māori language and doing kapa haka, and that’s when we would think about going back. But what would we be going back to?”

For many that have moved to Australia and in other places the truth stays; they’re at an advantage.

“They’re willing to pay for good workers over here,” says surveyor Daniel Reed, 38, who moved to Townsville from a small North Island the city together with his spouse and 3 babies closing yr.

“We’re putting $1000 away a fortnight and we enjoy our life, we’re not scraping by or wondering what the grocery bill is.” Leaving was once onerous, however their youngsters have been already taking part in their new colleges and existence.

“They’ll always be Kiwis, but they know the Australian national anthem. I don’t know if they remember the New Zealand one.”