MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox, April 24 | Deadspin.com

What a Waste of a Winsday

The newest Rockies-Rays beneath guess was once washed away into postponement final evening in spite of 0 rain in Kansas City for roughly two hours from the time of what was once intended to be first pitch. We may’ve possibly gotten seven innings or so in prior to any downpour, however on the other hand, why probably revisit the talk of that Giants-Yankees beneath from a couple of weeks in the past? Still grateful for that “no action” ruling.

Now we’re directly to Thursday, and it comes to a travel to Fenway Park, the place the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox conclude their three-game set after the primary two contests noticed each groups cut up high-scoring matchups. Will the collection finale fall in keeping with the ones earlier effects?

Au contraire. Not with a stellar pitching matchup on faucet.

For the house staff, Garrett Crochet will get the ball for his 6th get started within the Red Sox rotation. Much was once made about Boston’s acquisition of the 6-foot-6 left-hander all the way through the offseason—requiring a lovely stout change of avid gamers going to the opposite aspect in go back for his services and products—and Crochet has for sure exceeded the excessive expectancies early on.

Entering these days’s task, he carries a preferrred 1.13 ERA and 0.91 WHIP thru 32 innings whilst shackling batters to a completely emasculating .168/.236/.204 slash line. No, that’s not a typo—Crochet’s opposing slugging proportion is greater than 30 issues less than the on-base proportion.

Of the 113 at-bats logged in opposition to Crochet, best two ensued with a success going for additonal bases (one house run and one double). The Ks were aplenty as same old, too, because the 25-year-old’s strikeout price lately sits at 9.8 Okay/9.

A declare might be made that Crochet is the most efficient left-handed pitcher within the recreation these days, and in his subsequent flip, he’ll be seeing an offense that has ranked as probably the most worst as opposed to southpaws since final yr.

As has been highlighted a handful of instances already on this column, Seattle completed useless final in 2024 with a collective .213 reasonable reverse left-handers. In addition, they punched out continuously, putting out 453 instances in 1,564 ABs with a lefty at the mound.

This season, those struggles haven’t in reality stepped forward a lot, which shouldn’t be too unexpected for the reason that—as opposed to Rowdy Tellez—the Mariners didn’t upload any notable bats to the lineup. In flip, they’re lately hitting .227 in opposition to left-handed pitching and feature long past down by means of the Okay 80 instances in 247 at-bats. That’s near to one strikeout consistent with 3 turns on the plate.

Crochet may well be feasting, and that may be a deciding consider a complete as excessive as 8. If he critically limits the M’s and is going deep into the ballgame, that implies all we’ll want is a few extra of the everyday adequate paintings from his counterpart, Bryan Woo.

Much has been made concerning the Mariners having the most efficient pitching personnel in all of baseball. After all, their starters produced a staff 3.38 ERA a yr in the past to guide all of Major League Baseball—and that was once whilst throwing extra innings than any one. Furthermore, Seattle starters churned out essentially the most strikeouts of any American League rotation.

Woo is mainly the membership’s secret weapon. He was once extraordinarily underrated final season, best to unceremoniously be dubbed an All-Star snub in spite of retaining a 1.77 ERA coming into July of the marketing campaign. He would cross on to complete with a 2.89 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .211 batting reasonable in opposition to.

So, now not a soul must be stunned that the Cal Poly product is out to a very good starting this yr. Additionally, he’s going deeper into video games. Woo has pitched into the 7th inning or deeper in all 4 of his begins, one thing he best did 5 instances in his 22 outings a season in the past.

The Red Sox all the time provide a troublesome problem on the plate for any pitcher—particularly at house—however I consider with Crochet pacing issues, the remaining will maintain itself. We simply want Woo to proceed doing precisely what he’s been doing, and even simply manufacture one thing on the subject of that.

Pick: Under 8 (-105, BetMGM)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 17-15-1, -0.69 unit
Over/Unders: 15-10-1
Props: 2-4
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Results: Rockies-Royals Under 9 (No Action), Andrew Heaney Live Over 18.5 Outs (loss)

Each guess graded as though it have been to win one unit except differently indicated.

Follow me on X (previously Twitter) @MattZylbert for attainable further selections.